Title
Predictive Monitoring With Logic-Calibrated Uncertainty For Cyber-Physical Systems
Abstract
Predictive monitoring-making predictions about future states and monitoring if the predicted states satisfy requirements-offers a promising paradigm in supporting the decision making of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Existing works of predictive monitoring mostly focus on monitoring individual predictions rather than sequential predictions. We develop a novel approach for monitoring sequential predictions generated from Bayesian Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) that can capture the inherent uncertainty in CPS, drawing on insights from our study of real-world CPS datasets. We propose a new logic named Signal Temporal Logic with Uncertainty (STL-U) to monitor a flowpipe containing an infinite set of uncertain sequences predicted by Bayesian RNNs. We define STL-U strong and weak satisfaction semantics based on whether all or some sequences contained in a flowpipe satisfy the requirement. We also develop methods to compute the range of confidence levels under which a flowpipe is guaranteed to strongly (weakly) satisfy an STL-U formula. Furthermore, we develop novel criteria that leverage STL-U monitoring results to calibrate the uncertainty estimation in Bayesian RNNs. Finally, we evaluate the proposed approach via experiments with real-world CPS datasets and a simulated smart city case study, which show very encouraging results of STL-U based predictive monitoring approach outperforming baselines.
Year
DOI
Venue
2021
10.1145/3477032
ACM TRANSACTIONS ON EMBEDDED COMPUTING SYSTEMS
Keywords
DocType
Volume
Predictive monitoring, uncertainty
Journal
20
Issue
ISSN
Citations 
5
1539-9087
3
PageRank 
References 
Authors
0.46
0
4
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Meiyi Ma1399.12
Stankavic, J.2137051386.42
Ezio Bartocci373357.55
Feng Lu413922.18