Title
Arriving on time: estimating travel time distributions on large-scale road networks
Abstract
Most optimal routing problems focus on minimizing travel time or distance traveled. Oftentimes, a more useful objective is to maximize the probability of on-time arrival, which requires statistical distributions of travel times, rather than just mean values. We propose a method to estimate travel time distributions on large-scale road networks, using probe vehicle data collected from GPS. We present a framework that works with large input of data, and scales linearly with the size of the network. Leveraging the planar topology of the graph, the method computes efficiently the time correlations between neighboring streets. First, raw probe vehicle traces are compressed into pairs of travel times and number of stops for each traversed road segment using a ‘stopand-go’ algorithm developed for this work. The compressed data is then used as input for training a path travel time model, which couples a Markov model along with a Gaussian Markov random field. Finally, scalable inference algorithms are developed for obtaining path travel time distributions from the composite MM-GMRF model. We illustrate the accuracy and scalability of our model on a 505,000 road link network spanning the San Francisco Bay Area.
Year
DOI
Venue
2013
10.3929/ethz-b-000276746
CoRR
Field
DocType
Volume
Graph,Mathematical optimization,Road networks,Simulation,Inference,Markov model,Algorithm,Probability distribution,Global Positioning System,Travel time,Mathematics,Scalability
Journal
abs/1302.6617
Citations 
PageRank 
References 
1
0.36
9
Authors
8
Name
Order
Citations
PageRank
Timothy Hunter138917.41
Aude Hofleitner2666.64
Jack Reilly3334.49
Walid Krichene410814.02
Jerome Thai5154.32
Anastasios Kouvelas6365.56
Pieter Abbeel76363376.48
Alexandre M. Bayen81250137.72